访谈嘉宾：花生余，德银共同基金经理，专注中概股投资
访谈内容整理：
1.谈选股四要素：收益/估值/管理/流动性
提问：投资美股和投资A股的最大区别在哪里？另外能问下您在平时操作时会怎么“选股”呢？
花生余：US market pays a lot of attention to company guidence as most investors are professional institutions. A share is more retail oriented thus more volatile. Earning /Valuation/Management/liquidity are the top 4 factors when picking a stock.
提问：请教一下您如何看待中资概念股会计信息质量？德银基金在投资中资概念股时，是否都会去公司进行实地调研？实地调研时通常会问上市公司哪些问题？如何判断管理层是否是靠谱的？
花生余：Yes, we visit and meet the company management team time by time. Management team and corporate goverance are hard to evaluate, but one can build up your understanding to the firm and the mgmt team, just like how would you decide to marry a girl for the rest fo your life.
2.谈中概网游、光伏板块及总体市场特点
提问：之前华尔街专栏作者埃里克·杰克森认为，中国科技公司的泡沫危机还未来临，在Facebook、Groupon、Zynga这些大型美国公司上市前，一些公司如优酷、新浪等，极有可能创出历史新高。请问，您怎么看这个判断？是否中概今年还有一波很大的上涨行情呢？
花生余：Overall risk appetitie is quite weak and in generall, 中概 stocks arre mostly growth stocks, which tend to underperform in this market environment.
提问：您认为这次美债加欧债问题，是否将引发世界经济二次探底？抑或是仅仅是股价短期下调，市场反应过度？
花生余：Compared with the crisis in 2008-09, when investors viewed the government/central banks as the last resort of hope, the latest US/EU debt issues imply that govts now have run out of magic tricks. It is the lack of confidence, plus the double dip caused the market correction.
提问：如何看待美股上中国光伏公司目前的低估值？您预计光伏行业走出这波低谷大概还要多长时间？目前光伏是否是一个好的机会？
花生余：主要是行业的前景很不确定。简要的说，目前来看，需求主要在欧洲，而欧洲又以德国，意大利为重，主要原因是政府补贴在当前欧债危机和财政紧缩下，靠不住了。2011年开始的2-3年内，欧洲需求增速大幅下滑将是大概率事件，欧洲之外的地区需求是否能逐步释放是决定产业平稳发展的关键。
提问：网游行业长期以来估值水平相对而言都比较低，请问您怎么看这个问题？您觉得主要原因是什么？
花生余：Chinese online gaming sector faces several risks which are depressing the valuation. 1) Title risk or the hit and miss of a new game; 2) regulation risk; 3) competition risks in China and from external, supported by VC and PE; 4) Mgmt team risk, ie short track record, CG issue.
提问：网游行业最终胜出者会是坚持自主研发带有中国特色的网络游戏，还是通过代理海外大型网游丰富游戏品种，还是走向国际市场输出产品？
花生余：I think a successful gaming company should have the first two in order to win in the domestic market. To go to global market, I doubt it at least in near term. China"s R&D and game development capability is still in a learn and catch-up phase.
提问：中国概念股中出现了许多“现金高于市值”的公司，例如麦考林等，请问你如何看待这样的一些公司，投资它们的标准是否可以按照“资产清算标准”进行？
花生余：No, this are not free cash as most of these companies are under expansion mood. They burn cash instead of net cash.
3.谈视频行业：土豆相比优酷无竞争优势
提问：土豆上市后股价持续下跌，请问您怎么看这个问题？另外就是您怎么看中国视频行业的竞争格局？在你看来，优酷的挑战者是土豆，还是奇艺，还是迅雷？
花生余：YouKu and Tudou are two of the best in this sector. Tudou is No2 with 14% market share and 91mn registered users. But Tudou is not a LT investment target as it lacks competititve advantage in either contect, tech or cash position. Its traffic lags behind Tencent and Baidu.
提问：继续问视频行业的问题，在土豆上市后，不少人觉得“多土豆、空优酷”会是不错的投资策略，你怎么看这样的操作策略？优酷目前还是被高估着吗？
花生余：Tudou"s implied valuations are fair compared to Youku (tra21x FY11 and 12x FY12 PS on BBG) as its no.2 position seems to be adequately discounted. But as I said,Tudou is not a LT investment it lacks competitive advantage in either content, technology or cash position.
4.谈对新浪估值：90美元以下可以买入
提问：对于新浪的估值会在哪个段位，或者说那个区间，是否能透露？
花生余：Given the latest development (200mn registered users) in the weibo monetization, and increased demand from E-commerce companies to improve brand awareness, I am +VE to the outlook of weibo. Assume Weibo =USD3bn(45/share), Sina=130USD, thus below 90USD is a good buying level.
提问：第一，在美国上市的新浪和人人网两家公司，那个更像是美国的twitter或者facebook,应该投资那家更好些？第二，奇虎360你认为值得投资吗？第三，优酷土豆酷六这三家视频网站有投资价值吗，您看好哪一家？第四，您对当当网如何看法？
花生余：Sina has better quality, products and team. I think more meaningful rev contribution from weibo will come in 2012 when Sina opens its weibo to more advisers and mroe 3rd parties apps kick in. Maybe it has its own paid-search rev begin. Other questions have been answered.
5.谈教育行业、经济型酒店行业及影视行业
提问：我一直关注经济型酒店行业，好像如家、汉庭、7天的股票随大盘波动比较小。您怎么看经济型酒店行业在下半年的发展？7天这样的快速扩张模式和汉庭注重收益管理的模式，哪个更受美国投资者青睐？
花生余：HMIN"s valuation is attractive at 7.4XEV/ebitda 2012, below its LT average. The acquisition of Motel 168 creates a LT value and lays down a path for its growth beyond 2012. Currently, it has 718 hotels in 134 cities, thus well diversified. expect to add 260-280 new in 2011.
提问：Given the fierce competition CTRP is facing, Qunar for example, are you still optimistic on the outlook of the stock?
花生余：Intensifyign competition from Taobao and China mobile is the visible risk to CTRP. But online travel accounts for oly 5-10% of total travel industry sales, thus I see 20-30% growth in the coming few years.. With 50% markt share, CTRP will benefit from industry growth.
提问：奇虎360目前的盈利模式为“广告+联营游戏”，依靠的是浏览器的市场份额，请问你怎么看奇虎360的未来增长潜力？
花生余：I am not allowed to talk about this stock for the time being.
提问：怎么看新东方（EDU）、学而思（XRS）和学大（XUE）？
花生余：Prefer EDU. The company has demonstrated effective cost control and utilization rate improvement. It has continued to leas its core overseas test preparation market, where enrollment grew 33% and Rev +55% yoy in the F3Q2011. +Ve on 4Q.
提问：您觉得博纳的现有业务怎么样？未来的业绩持续增长是不是还要看影院建成呢？抑或是和美国合拍电影的业务发展？
花生余：Channel is the key for growth, but capitial intensive. Movie title is second to building a chain of movie theaters. > Thanks, my dear friends
提问：CNT plunged from 220 to 180 this week. Do you see any implications behind?
花生余：Tencent saw itS non-gaap op margin down 6% due to mkting cost and staff cost increase. In the near term the trend may continue in to 3Q. I will wait a bit...but if it trades down to 170HKD, it will be
提问：Are you following LDK because you want to get some exposure to the solar industry or just to take a look?
花生余：Never like LDK. The upstream solar sector is all about cost advantage. Thus GCL poly is better. The latest news is TEBA in A-share will start a 12K ton/yr project in Xinjiang. Its electricity cost =RMB20c/KWH vs GCL=RMB65c/KWH.