（i美股）德意志银行DWS(中国)基金经理人@花生余 先生本周日（10月30日）在雪球财经 i美股 发表文章，分析了全球经济和市场分析。花生余先生认为鉴于预期增长的风险，对目前的“熊市反弹”应保持警惕。
以下是花生余先生英文文章的编译：
全球市场情况
“目前的市场是系统性风险与增长风险两种观点的对决？”上周，欧盟布鲁塞尔第二次峰会推出欧债危机全面解决方案，美国上市公司公布的业绩报告超过预期（标准普尔500指数公司中有324家发布了季度业绩报告，其中70%实现了令人惊讶的增长），甲骨文收购RightNow公司、谷歌收购雅虎等更多并购的消息带来更为乐观的市场情绪（VIX指数大跌-21.68%至24.53点），受这些利好消息的推动，全球风险资产实现自1974年以来最强的反弹，。
另一方面，美国上周公布的宏观数据好坏掺杂，其中9月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率上升1.7%，9月新屋销售总数年化31.3万户，前三季度个人消费支出增长2.4%，10月份密歇根大学消费者信心指数上升至60.9（美国经济咨商局公布的10月份消费者信心指数跌至39.8点），8月份标准普尔/凯斯席勒（S&P/Case-Shiller）房屋价格指数同比跌幅收窄至3.8%，9月成屋待完成销售指数环比下跌-4.6%，上周首次申请失业救济人数小幅下降至40.2万人（402K）。美国第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长为2.5%。
上周的焦点是欧盟解决债务危机的进展：1）将欧洲金融稳定机制(EFSF)规模从440亿欧元扩大至约1万亿欧元；2）希腊债务减记50%; 3）欧洲银行业一级资本充足率提高到9 %。
下周经济的焦点是：1）美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于11月2日召开会议，在这次会议上，FOMC在准备提高借贷成本前，将明确他们对基准利率的调整目标；2）11月3日至4日，市场对G20会议成果的反应。
中国市场
在中国，市场出现乐观情绪。温家宝总理首次表示，中国政府将在“适当时候”对经济政策进行“微调”。在此之前，中国汇金公司宣布将购入中国五大国有银行的股票（基于历史经验，这是中国股市将很快见底的信号），中国政府最近重申鼓励对中小型企业提供供求（虽然这不是什么新闻）。然后，中国财政部在本周末表示，将于明年1月起将上海服务和运输行业征收的营业税改为征收增值税。这一改革的影响如何尚不知晓，但释放的信号是明确的，这就是中国政府在对经济政策是进一步收紧还是放宽之间，现在更倾向于后者。此外，中国住房和城乡建设部部长姜伟新表示，今年在40个城市实施的限购令是不得已的举措，“一旦全国个人住房信息联网，和银行、税务等系统信息统一到一个平台，就不必再采取限购这种行政色彩浓厚的办法来调节楼市。”
宏观经济方面，汇丰（HSBC）中国发布的10月PMI指数初值重返景气线50以上（前两个月的数据低于50的景气线以下），这缓解了市场对中国经济硬着陆的担心。企业业绩方面，A股公司将陆续公布季度业绩报告，迄今为止，A股917家公司中已有640家公司公布了季度业绩报告，报告显示这些公司同比增长平均为23%，远超分析师预期的4.2%。我认为中国股市最新反弹是由于“超额风险溢价”(excess risk premium)下滑带来的，而“超额风险溢价”是九月初以来全球投资者心目中“系统性风险”成为主导意见引起的。
上周，我到中国实地参观，在此期间，我参观了一些公司，并拜访了业内一些专家，这些公司和专家属于今年下跌最严重的行业，如房地产、建筑设备和纺织品出口等行业。我相信，那些因“系统性风险”而看空中国的投资者似乎过于极端了，或者他们没有看到《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》或《金融时报》等媒体报道背后的真相。作为一个整体，中国有足够的财政和税收资源，来解决或控制目前某些行业或地区出现的特定风险。例如，铁路部门的偿付能力风险已逐步得到解决，一个明显的标志是上一周发行的200亿人民币铁路建设债券的认购比率(bid-to-cover ratio)为16.87。在年底前，通过发行总计1000亿人民币的铁路债券和500亿人民币的银行信贷安排，铁路部门将恢复正常的运作。事实上，中国铁路部门一直得到政府的密切关注。
此外，中国地方政府相关的信托产品（约1.5-2万亿人民币的规模）主要是由地方政府的预算收入提供担保，本质上它与中央政府债券的信用风险是相同的。众所周知，中国2011财年的财政收入总额预计将达到10万亿人民币10trn，这反过来又可以很好地解释为什么中国政府有信心在整体上坚持实施紧缩政策。
同时，在中国另一个加工出口基地宁波，当地的企业经营者面对出口下跌显得相当平静，因为在过去20年他们都经历过多次上升和下跌的周期。他们企业的资产负债表仍处于健康状态。鉴于宁波市2010年进出口总额达到829亿美元，而温州只有170.9亿美元，我觉得《华尔街日报》的报道“捡了芝麻丢了西瓜”。虽然如此，中国经济的潜在风险来自于两个方面：短期上是出口增长放缓，长期上是人口老龄化。
在中国参观期间，我认识了一位65岁的商人叶先生，他是中国大陆和台湾之间集装箱货运的代理商。叶先生于1993年创立自己的企业，现在从事航运业已超过18年。他认为，“... ... 2011年第四季度的市场行情比2008年第四季度的更差... ...对我来说，今年的生意已经结束了，我将回到澳大利亚度假... ...”他告诉我，他的宁波客户今年从美国和欧洲获得订单很少。美国国务卿希拉里?克林顿今年早些时候就在深圳说过，美国今年不太可能进口更多的产品。叶先生认为，最坏的时候将是2012年第一季度。
对于中国宏观政策的决策者来说，农民工的生活和工资拖欠问题似乎不如人口问题那么重要。事实上，中国老龄化的速度是美国的3倍，这种人口发展趋势肯定会增加对经济增长的担忧和增加通胀的压力。我的观点是，中国的通胀压力显然是上行的，中国决策者将不得不小心地利用他们的政策工具。但是，中国经济增长的放缓幅度不会像看空中国的人所预计的那样严重。
未来几年，中国国内生产总值增长仍将维持在8-9%，基于以下原因：1）在中国的劳动生产率仍然很低，中国2009年的平均劳动生产率只有美国的62%；2）中国的退休人口有工作意愿。目前，中国拥有约5500万年龄60-65岁的退休劳动力，而这一人群到2020年将达到7500万；3）中国残疾人总数有8300万，对他们进行职业技能培训可能有助于中国经济增长。我觉得第一点和第二点最重要，而国际上有很好的先例。1983年，美国政府将退休年龄从65岁提高至67岁。但问题是，美国实际执行这一政策推迟了10年。因此，中国政府应在劳动力红利消耗完之前，早一点采取行动。总而言之，鉴于预期增长的风险，我认为对目前的“熊市反弹”应保持警惕。
（i美股 刘春 编译）
以下为英文原文：
“The Systemic Risks vs. Growth Risks” The week saw global risk assets had the strongest weekly run since 1974 on the back of the announcement of EU leaders" rescue plan, BTE earning results (SPX 324/500 reported & 70% surprised on the upside) and better market sentiment (VIX -21.68%) as a result of more M&A news including Oracle buying RightNow, Google buying Yahoo and Cigna buying HelathSpring. On the other hand, US macro data was in a mixed bag with BTE durable goods ex-transportation (+1.7%), new home sales(313K), personal consumption (+2.4%) and UoM (60.9) while consumer confidence (39.8), housing price index(-3.8%) and pending home sales (-4.6%) fell short of expectation and the initial jobless claims (402K) was slightly HTE. The 3Q US GDP was in line at 2.5%. The focus of last week was of course on the development in EU debt solutions 1) the boost of EFSF from EUR440bn to EUR1.4trn; 2) 50% haircut on Greece debt; and 3) a boost of banks capital to 9%. The key to watch next week will be 1) Nov 2nd FOMC meeting during which the policy makers will clarify benchmark they want to reach before it is ready to raise borrowing costs; and 2) November 3rd-4th after the G20 meeting.
In China, the market optimism was triggered by Premier Wen"s first time comment that the government would “fine tune” economic policies at an “appropriate time”. This gesture was a follow up action after Huijin announced buying the big five SOE banks (which based on history should signal a bottoming of the market soon) and the government"s recent reiteration of encouraging lending to SME (though this is nothing new). Then towards the end of the week, MoF said they would change business tax to VAT for the service and transportation sector in Shanghai starting January next year. The impact of this is unknown but the message is clear and that is the Government is leaning towards more easing than tightening on the economy. In addition, Jiang Weixin, Minister of Housing and Urban Rural Development said that the government was forced to impose the limit on home purchases that was rolled out in 40 cities this year and will eventually replace them with a housing data base that will gather information from banks and tax offices. On the economy, HSBC PMI came out above 50 (after the previous two times under such critical level) which gave relief to the market on the chance of hard landing in China. Earning wise, A-share market is in the middle of reporting season and so far 640 out of 917 companies have report with an average of 23% growth yoy which trailed analysts" estimate by 4.2%.
That being discussed, I think the latest rally of China markets is due to the decline of excess risk premium, which was caused by the dominating views of “systemic risks” among the global investors" minds since early September. Bases on my last week"s trip to China, of which I visited a few dozens of companies and industry experts in the most distressed sectors like Railway, Property, Construction Equipments and Textile Export, I believe that those China bears with a view of “systemic risks” seemed clearly overdone or they do not see the reality under the media reports in the WSJ or Financial Times. As a whole, China has ample financial and revenue resources to resolve or control the current idiosyncratic risks emerged in some sectors or regions. For example, the solvency risk of the railway sector has been gradually resolved if one noticed the 16.87X Bid/Cover ratio of the RMB20bn railway construction debt issued in the past week. Before the year-end, through the RMB100bn of railway debt issuance and RMB50bn bank loan arrangement, the whole sector will resume its normal operation. In fact, the railway sector is currently under the close watch from two of Vice Premiers (Li Keqiang and Zhang Dejiang) since the national meeting on September 23rd. The government related trust products (about RMB1.5-2trn) were largely guaranteed by the local government"s budget revenue, which essentially carry the same credit risk as the central government. It is widely known that the total amount of fiscal revenue of China in FY2011 is expected to reach RMB 10trn, which in turn explains well why the government has the confidence to hold up its tightening policy stance in general. Meanwhile, in the city of Ningbo, another hub of China export manufacturers, business owners look quite calm as they have experienced many up & down cycles over the past 20 years. They have learned ti keep their balance sheets quite healthy. Given that NingBo had USD82.9bn merchandise trades in 2010 (vs. Wenzhou @ USD17.09bn), I think the journalists from WSJ sound “"penny wise, pound foolish”.
Having said so, the underlying risks of Chinese economy come from two fronts the export slow down in the short-term and the demographic migration in the long-term. During the trip, I got to know a 65-year old business man, who is acting as a container shipping agent between China and Taiwan. Mr. Yip Kok Chong started his business in 1993 and has been in the shipping industry for more than 18 years. He commented that “… the 4Q11 is even worse than 4Q08 … To me, this year is over and I am going back to Australia for vacation…” He shared with me that his Ningbo clients have not seen much orders from US and Europe, which is same to what Miss Clinton said early in Shenzhen that US is not likely to buy more this year. Mr. Yip thinks the worst time will arrive in 1Q2012.
To the macro policy markers, the migrant workers" life and pay dilemma seems not as big as the demographic issue, In fact, the speed of Chinese population turning older is 3X as fast as that of US population, and this demographic trend would definitely raise more concerns on growth and more pressure on inflation as well. In my own views, the inflation pressure is clearly going up, and the policy makers will have to carefully utilize their tool-kits going forward. However, the growth of China economy may not slow-down as much as the China bears expected. There are couple places to sustain the 8-9% of GDP growth in the years ahead 1) the labor productivity in China is still low. Currently, China"s average labor productivity is only 62% of American"s in 2009; 2) China"s retired population has willingness to work. Currently, China has about 55mn retired labor at 60-65 years old, and this pool will reach 75mn by 2020; 3) China has 83mn of handicapped population, which could be trained and help contributed to the economy. I think the point 1) and 2) are solid and there is international example of best practice. In 1983, the US government raised the retirement age from 65 to 67. But the problem is the actual implementation has to wait for another 10 years. Thus, Chinese government has to act a bit earlier before the economy runs out of labor dividend. All in all, given the expected growth risks, I would think the current “bear market rally” is worth a caution here.
(THE END)
德意志银行DWS(中国)基金经理人@花生余